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Upcoming war predictions: post-delve edition


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WAR IN DELVE IS OVER

This is a fairly substantial turning point in the topography of New Eden; groups move home, some trips are long, some areas are currently occupied by groups that could only hold the space during the "daddy is away" conditions, Goons invariably launch an assault once things get cleaned up at home, etc. Once the dust settles, there is no question that some significant border wars will break out as groups move from 100% war to 100% crab and then eventually get bored and seek to find content again.

What are your predictions for what the new topography will look like once everyone moves home?

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Goons reclaim their space, go back to crabbing, TEST takes space in drones or that ruski area next to drones and eventually failcascades. Other legacy groups and some other random smaller groups take old legacy space and get farmed for content/become goon bluetralls. Everyone crabs for 2 years in preperation for the next war.

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I'm looking for this type of rotation to mix things up, but I'm not really sure on the precise politics. I know there is Vince vs PGL drama, so I'm expecting that to pop off at some point, but I'm seeing closer little border skirmishes to keep the north satisfied for the near future and TEST to need to reallocate allies / kick out randoms and recreate income streams leading to interesting movements in quadrant 4. 

Thoughts? 

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Well, it took a little longer than expected, but we're seeing the types of rotations I would expect, just a little different outcomes:
- BRAVE shifted to be part of north crew, rotation otherwise correct
- I forgot about FRT a little bit, so the north group actually the circle is a bit bigger but should also rotate west soon i believe (or is it south?)
- FI.RE shifting onto dreadbomb with help from a homeless TEST should be some interesting antics too
 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

What will happen:

Goons have more money than sense.  They are going after TEST and TEST will probably not survive long term unless they find a couch to crash on and someone to hide behind.  Depending on how much hurfing and blurfing Mittens can do to get goons to stop krabbing long enough to finish TEST (doubtful) TEST will most likely survive in some form.   Goons are not the greatest at offensive wars, especially post fozzie-sov so while Mittens promises to crush anyone that helps TEST I'd place serious doubt on him being able to follow through outside normal 'harassment' ops and entosis gimmicks.  Goons are all show no flow unless their super capital fleet can be flexed and the horn of Goondor can be used (which it alreay has) but even that has limits - how many pilots will actually deploy to crush "Papi bag holder #21."

Horde will get more powerful.  The most likely candidate for receiving TEST refugees (especially corps) is horde or some entity connected to PL.  Horde has also shown a lot of resilience and Gobbins and his leadership team are a capable political entity despite the blunders.  The big question is if Horde will really invest in its infrastructure and create an economy to rival Goons.  This has already happened in a lot of ways but alliance unification of logistics and income stratification via moons can improve and be streamlined more.   Goons control a lot of the raw mineral markets and until someone can tackle that they'll always have the upper hand. 

Fraternity will grow and will probably be one of the key players in the next big war.  As a US or EU based alliance/coalition, I would hate to go to war with Frat.  If frat can grow it's list of western based allies they will be unstoppable.  It's really that simple.  Not even goons with their very strong pacific and Australian time zone can rival an Asian based super power in the game.   Most of goon's leadership is also very much against any sort of war with any entity in Asia.  They know it's their biggest weak spot.  

What won't happen:

TEST will live. I know I said above that TEST will be wrecked by Imperium but again, I have serious doubt in Imperium's ability to project power like it used to.   Someone used to say "Big dogs don't bark, they bite."  All I see Mittani doing is barking.  Again, I doubt he'll deploy supers in the numbers seen in previous offensive wars.  After more than a year most of its members are not in any way interested in another hellwar outside of harassment shenanigan's.  Everyone is burnt out, especially their logistics team who is busy trying to rebuilt Delve's infrastructure so fuck trying to JF a shit ton of assets to chase TEST.

A lot of people are hoping more space up for grabs in nullsec will attract groups in low and hisec to relocate but that's wishful at best.  This always gets said after a major war and it always a "well yes and no" sort of thing.  Stop hoping HiSec Jesus is gonna save yall by preaching the gospel in Null.  

Brave should join PanFam officially.  It will never happen; but, given they've helped PanFam in just about every conflict in null, it's time to call a spade a spade.  Would also be interested if they went back to lowsec but that probably won't happen either.   Brave will always be a group that does the opposite of what benefits them the most.  

What would be cool:

More fish in the sea.  Triglovians invading SoV systems and flipping them.  JF range increases.   I dunno.   What I do know is it would be nice if Imperium would ever stop using 40k references.  Would be cool if TEST leadership just like, I dunno, deleted their characters and handed the alliance over to a random line member who would probably make better decisions than they would.  It would be cool if my application to PL was accepted too, TIA. 

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13 hours ago, Fredricksburgh said:

What will happen:

Goons have more money than sense.  They are going after TEST and TEST will probably not survive long term unless they find a couch to crash on and someone to hide behind.  Depending on how much hurfing and blurfing Mittens can do to get goons to stop krabbing long enough to finish TEST (doubtful) TEST will most likely survive in some form.   Goons are not the greatest at offensive wars, especially post fozzie-sov so while Mittens promises to crush anyone that helps TEST I'd place serious doubt on him being able to follow through outside normal 'harassment' ops and entosis gimmicks.  Goons are all show no flow unless their super capital fleet can be flexed and the horn of Goondor can be used (which it alreay has) but even that has limits - how many pilots will actually deploy to crush "Papi bag holder #21."

Horde will get more powerful.  The most likely candidate for receiving TEST refugees (especially corps) is horde or some entity connected to PL.  Horde has also shown a lot of resilience and Gobbins and his leadership team are a capable political entity despite the blunders.  The big question is if Horde will really invest in its infrastructure and create an economy to rival Goons.  This has already happened in a lot of ways but alliance unification of logistics and income stratification via moons can improve and be streamlined more.   Goons control a lot of the raw mineral markets and until someone can tackle that they'll always have the upper hand. 

Fraternity will grow and will probably be one of the key players in the next big war.  As a US or EU based alliance/coalition, I would hate to go to war with Frat.  If frat can grow it's list of western based allies they will be unstoppable.  It's really that simple.  Not even goons with their very strong pacific and Australian time zone can rival an Asian based super power in the game.   Most of goon's leadership is also very much against any sort of war with any entity in Asia.  They know it's their biggest weak spot.  

What won't happen:

TEST will live. I know I said above that TEST will be wrecked by Imperium but again, I have serious doubt in Imperium's ability to project power like it used to.   Someone used to say "Big dogs don't bark, they bite."  All I see Mittani doing is barking.  Again, I doubt he'll deploy supers in the numbers seen in previous offensive wars.  After more than a year most of its members are not in any way interested in another hellwar outside of harassment shenanigan's.  Everyone is burnt out, especially their logistics team who is busy trying to rebuilt Delve's infrastructure so fuck trying to JF a shit ton of assets to chase TEST.

A lot of people are hoping more space up for grabs in nullsec will attract groups in low and hisec to relocate but that's wishful at best.  This always gets said after a major war and it always a "well yes and no" sort of thing.  Stop hoping HiSec Jesus is gonna save yall by preaching the gospel in Null.  

Brave should join PanFam officially.  It will never happen; but, given they've helped PanFam in just about every conflict in null, it's time to call a spade a spade.  Would also be interested if they went back to lowsec but that probably won't happen either.   Brave will always be a group that does the opposite of what benefits them the most.  

What would be cool:

More fish in the sea.  Triglovians invading SoV systems and flipping them.  JF range increases.   I dunno.   What I do know is it would be nice if Imperium would ever stop using 40k references.  Would be cool if TEST leadership just like, I dunno, deleted their characters and handed the alliance over to a random line member who would probably make better decisions than they would.  It would be cool if my application to PL was accepted too, TIA. 

Youre a bit late m8, pretty much all of those things have already happened (differently). Test already found a couch to crash on, theyre in drones behind panfam. Goons have moved the test is next goalposts to cleaning out old test space of structures and INIT does rorq hunting through wormholes. Brave joined winterco.

Also want to sell PL vouch. (Only the bad corps)

Edited by Joshua Foiritain
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3 hours ago, Joshua Foiritain said:

Youre a bit late m8, pretty much all of those things have already happened (differently). Test already found a couch to crash on, theyre in drones behind panfam. Goons have moved the test is next goalposts to cleaning out old test space of structures and INIT does rorq hunting through wormholes. Brave joined winterco.

Also want to sell PL vouch. (Only the bad corps)

Woops.  Well, I've been in and out.   Same shit, different year.   As for the PL vouch by bad corps, yes, Snig is fine.

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